April 2025 Market Update

April 2025 brought volatility across U.S. and global financial markets, as investors reacted to new U.S. tariffs. Global equities wavered and ended slightly down (S&P 500 –0.8%), torn between optimism that President Donald Trump might relent on some import taxes and fear that those levies will hurt growth. Safe-haven assets surged amid the uncertainty: gold hit a record high near $3,500/oz before settling higher for the month, while the U.S. dollar briefly sank to a three-year low. Bond yields spiked to multi-week highs early in the month as trade turmoil sparked a dash for cash, then eased; the 10-year Treasury ended around 4.2%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin initially fell alongside stocks but later surged, reclaiming $90,000 and finishing April roughly 20% above its low as some investors sought alternatives to fiat currency turmoil. Overall, markets remained jittery in the face of the tariff battle yet hopeful that easing trade tensions could restore confidence.

I don't want to always present Bull/Bear cases for the market, but with the volatility this month I thought it would be important:

Bull Case

Despite the tumult, bullish catalysts emerged by late April. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled the US-China tariff war is “unsustainable” and predicted imminent de-escalation, sparking a relief rally [1]. Major indexes surged over 2% in a single day on hopes of a trade truce [2]. Investors also cheered prospects of pro-growth policies at home; optimism about potential trade deals, new tax cuts, and deregulation helped the S&P 500 notch its longest string of gains since November [3]. Meanwhile, market and institutional forces are expected to contain the worst of President Trump’s policies, and underlying trends could position the U.S. for “exceptional growth” in the longer run [4].

Bear Case

April’s market damage underscored serious risks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged toward its worst April since 1932 [5] amid escalated tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Economic data turned grim: U.S. GDP fell, marking the first contraction in three years, alongside bleak jobs numbers [6]. Trade-war uncertainty also hit corporate America, with a wave of companies pulling earnings forecasts and “more than 80% of senior executives” worried about tariffs [7]. Economists warn that without a policy shift, a recession is almost a certainty [8].

Quote for the Month:

“Cash rules everything around me, C.R.E.A.M., get the money; dollar dollar bill, y’all.” – Wu-Tang Clan